Bury Town vs Leamington Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Bury Town and 0.90 for Leamington, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Bury Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bury Town win

66.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bury Town home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Leamington away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bury Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Bury Town and 0.90 for Leamington, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bury Town win67%

Draw19%

Leamington win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

2–010.9%
1–010.0%
2–19.8%
1–19.0%
3–07.9%

Recent form

Bury Town

2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Spalding United · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bishop's Stortford · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs St Albans City · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hitchin Town · 1-0 (W)

Leamington

2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gainsborough Trinity · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bishop's Stortford · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Bury Town 3-0 Leamington (Non League Premier - Southern Central)

Non League Premier - Southern Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Bedford	13	10	2	1	21	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	4	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	8	3	1	10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	9	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	6	4	2	13	22
8	Alvechurch	12	6	4	2	12	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	5	2	4	-3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Redditch United	11	3	5	3	1	14
14	Hitchin Town	14	3	4	7	-4	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	4	1	8	-6	13
16	Banbury United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Leiston	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Stratford Town	13	2	6	5	-8	12
19	Leamington	13	2	4	7	-6	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	-8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	-13	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	-32	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bury Town win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.