Bury vs Congleton Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Bury and 1.00 for Congleton Town, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Bury the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bury win

57.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bury home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Congleton Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bury to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Bury and 1.00 for Congleton Town, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bury win57%

Draw23%

Congleton Town win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.7%
1–110.7%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
3–06.1%

Recent form

Bury

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Workington · 5-1 (W)

Congleton Town

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bridlington Town · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atherton Collieries · 4-1 (W)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trafford · 4-0 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chasetown · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Witton Albion · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Northern West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bury	42	27	9	6	50	90
2	Avro	42	27	7	8	53	88
3	Stalybridge Celtic	42	25	7	10	33	82
4	Runcorn Linnets	42	23	11	8	31	80
5	Lower Breck	42	22	9	11	26	75
6	Bootle	42	21	11	10	21	74
7	Vauxhall Motors	42	20	12	10	24	72
8	Witton Albion	42	17	10	15	9	61
9	Nantwich Town	42	18	7	17	4	61
10	Chasetown	42	17	9	16	3	60
11	Mossley	42	14	17	11	6	59
12	Shifnal Town FC	42	15	10	17	-7	55
13	Atherton Collieries	42	16	7	19	-12	55
14	Newcastle Town	42	15	7	20	-17	52
15	Clitheroe	42	13	12	17	-3	51
16	Kidsgrove Athletic	42	12	11	19	-16	47
17	Stafford Rangers	42	12	9	21	-19	45
18	Congleton Town	42	10	14	18	-12	44
19	Sporting Khalsa	42	12	7	23	-24	43
20	Wythenshawe Town	42	8	8	26	-53	32
21	Trafford	42	7	8	27	-31	29
22	Darlaston Town	42	7	6	29	-66	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bury win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.