· Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Bury vs Harrogate Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Bury and 1.45 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Bury the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bury win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bury home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Harrogate Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bury to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Bury and 1.45 for Harrogate Town, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Bury
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Workington · 5-1 (W)
Harrogate Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Hornchurch · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hartlepool · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastleigh · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boreham Wood · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bury win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.