Gigg Lane · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Bury vs Lancaster City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Bury and 0.91 for Lancaster City, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Bury the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bury win
68.5% probability
Expected goals
2.29 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bury home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lancaster City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bury to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for Bury and 0.91 for Lancaster City, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–18.5%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Bury
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prescot Cables · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Harrogate Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 0-1 (L)
Lancaster City
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Avro · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilkeston Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whitby Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 17 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 21 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bury win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.