Gigg Lane · Analysis updated 21:41 UTC
Bury vs Prescot Cables Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Bury and 2.68 for Prescot Cables, a combined total of 5.18. That distribution gives Prescot Cables the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.0% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bury home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Prescot Cables away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prescot Cables to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 38% / 18% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Bury and 2.68 for Prescot Cables, a combined 5.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 2–35.6%
- 3–25.3%
- 1–25.1%
- 2–14.7%
Recent form
Bury
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prescot Cables · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Harrogate Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 0-1 (L)
Prescot Cables
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallam · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atherton Collieries · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontefract Collieries · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horbury Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Vauxhall Motors · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.