Bury vs Workington Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Bury and 1.15 for Workington, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Bury the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Bury win

60.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bury home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Workington away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bury to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Bury and 1.15 for Workington, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bury win60%

Draw20%

Workington win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.1%
2–08.5%
1–07.9%
3–17.0%

Recent form

Bury

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prescot Cables · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Harrogate Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 0-1 (L)

Workington

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Whitby Town · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Northern table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	9	1	3	15	28
4	Gainsborough Trinity	14	9	1	4	14	28
5	Avro	14	9	1	4	10	28
6	Workington	15	7	3	5	1	24
7	Rylands	14	7	2	5	4	23
8	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	7	1	5	7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	4	20
11	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	-9	20
12	Bury	11	6	1	4	11	19
13	Whitby Town	15	6	1	8	-15	19
14	AFC Emley	15	4	5	6	-10	17
15	Hyde United	15	4	3	8	-14	15
16	Leek Town	13	3	5	5	0	14
17	Ashton United	14	3	5	6	-1	14
18	Quorn	13	3	5	5	-6	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	-10	12
20	United of Manchester	13	2	4	7	-6	10
21	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	-17	10
22	Ilkeston Town	15	3	1	11	-24	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bury win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.