· Analysis updated 19:35 UTC
Bury vs Wythenshawe Amateurs Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Bury and 1.18 for Wythenshawe Amateurs, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Bury the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bury win
62.0% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bury home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wythenshawe Amateurs away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bury to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Bury and 1.18 for Wythenshawe Amateurs, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Bury
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prescot Cables · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Harrogate Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 0-1 (L)
Wythenshawe Amateurs
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Blyth Spartans · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heaton Stannington · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs West Auckland Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Vauxhall Motors · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bury win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.