Busan I Park vs Cheongju Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Busan I Park and 1.10 for Cheongju, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Busan I Park the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Busan I Park win

59.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Busan I Park home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cheongju away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Busan I Park to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Busan I Park and 1.10 for Cheongju, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Busan I Park win59%

Draw21%

Cheongju win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.7%
2–09.0%
1–08.8%
3–16.7%

Recent form

Busan I Park

2026-10-18T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeonnam Dragons · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Paju Citizen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansan Greeners · 0-1 (L)

Cheongju

2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Asan Mugunghwa · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Seoul E-Land FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Hwaseong · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	28	19	5	4	25	62
2	Suwon City FC	28	15	9	4	22	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	16	6	6	20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	15	7	6	17	52
5	Busan I Park	29	14	6	9	10	48
6	Hwaseong	28	12	8	8	12	44
7	Asan Mugunghwa	28	10	9	9	4	39
8	Gimpo Citizen	28	9	11	8	2	38
9	Gyeongnam FC	28	8	11	9	-2	35
10	Cheongju	28	6	14	8	-10	32
11	Seongnam FC	28	7	10	11	-7	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	8	6	13	-7	30
13	Yongin City	27	5	12	10	-9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	5	11	11	-6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	7	4	17	-21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	5	9	14	-17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	3	8	17	-33	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Busan I Park win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.