Busan I Park vs Suwon Bluewings Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Busan I Park and 1.15 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Busan I Park the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Busan I Park win

47.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Busan I Park home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Suwon Bluewings away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Busan I Park win47%

Draw25%

Suwon Bluewings win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–010.3%
2–19.3%
2–08.1%
0–17.5%

Recent form

Busan I Park

2026-10-18T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeonnam Dragons · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Paju Citizen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansan Greeners · 0-1 (L)

Suwon Bluewings

2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Hwaseong · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansan Greeners · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Seoul E-Land FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Asan Mugunghwa · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-25T10:30:00.000Z · Busan I Park 1-4 Suwon Bluewings (K League 2)
2026-04-25T05:00:00.000Z · Busan I Park 2-3 Suwon Bluewings (K League 2)
2025-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · Busan I Park 1-0 Suwon Bluewings (K League 2)
2025-06-29T10:00:00.000Z · Busan I Park 1-1 Suwon Bluewings (K League 2)
2025-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Busan I Park 1-4 Suwon Bluewings (K League 2)
2024-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · Busan I Park 1-0 Suwon Bluewings (K League 2)
2024-06-02T07:30:00.000Z · Busan I Park 1-1 Suwon Bluewings (K League 2)
2024-03-31T07:30:00.000Z · Busan I Park 1-0 Suwon Bluewings (K League 2)
2020-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · Busan I Park 0-0 Suwon Bluewings (K League 1)
2020-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · Busan I Park 1-3 Suwon Bluewings (K League 1)

K League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	28	19	5	4	25	62
2	Suwon City FC	28	15	9	4	22	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	16	6	6	20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	15	7	6	17	52
5	Busan I Park	29	14	6	9	10	48
6	Hwaseong	29	12	9	8	12	45
7	Asan Mugunghwa	28	10	9	9	4	39
8	Gimpo Citizen	28	9	11	8	2	38
9	Gyeongnam FC	28	8	11	9	-2	35
10	Cheongju	29	6	14	9	-12	32
11	Seongnam FC	28	7	10	11	-7	31
12	Paju Citizen	28	8	7	13	-7	31
13	Yongin City	28	6	12	10	-7	30
14	Cheonan City	28	6	11	11	-4	29
15	Ansan Greeners	29	7	4	18	-23	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	5	9	14	-17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	3	8	17	-33	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Busan I Park win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.