Busan Gudeok Stadium · Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Busan Transportation vs Jeonbuk Motors II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Busan Transportation and 0.95 for Jeonbuk Motors II, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Busan Transportation the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Busan Transportation win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Busan Transportation home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jeonbuk Motors II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Busan Transportation to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Busan Transportation and 0.95 for Jeonbuk Motors II, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–07.5%
Recent form
Busan Transportation
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeoju Sejong · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Mokpo City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangjin Citizen · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangneung City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Citizen · 1-2 (L)
Jeonbuk Motors II
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangneung City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulsan Citizen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Changwon City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangjin Citizen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · Busan Transportation 2-1 Jeonbuk Motors II (K3 League)
- 2025-09-07T08:00:00.000Z · Busan Transportation 2-1 Jeonbuk Motors II (K3 League)
- 2025-05-10T05:00:00.000Z · Busan Transportation 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors II (K3 League)
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 40 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 8 | Gangneung City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 30 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Yeoju Sejong | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 28 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -14 | 25 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | -29 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Busan Transportation win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.