Stadiumi Andon Lapa · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Butrinti Sarandë vs Maliqi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Butrinti Sarandë and 1.40 for Maliqi, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Butrinti Sarandë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Butrinti Sarandë win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Butrinti Sarandë home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Maliqi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Butrinti Sarandë
- 2026-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lushnja · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriku · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Turbina Cërrik · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Këlcyra · 1-2 (L)
Maliqi
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 2-6 (L)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomori Berat · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkumbini Peqin · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-02T13:00:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 4-1 Maliqi (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2024-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 2-0 Maliqi (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2024-03-03T12:30:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 4-1 Maliqi (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2023-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 0-0 Maliqi (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2023-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 2-1 Maliqi (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2022-11-13T12:00:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 2-0 Maliqi (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2022-03-13T13:00:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 4-0 Maliqi (1st Division)
- 2021-11-06T13:00:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 1-1 Maliqi (1st Division)
- 2021-04-23T11:00:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 1-1 Maliqi (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2020-12-23T12:30:00.000Z · Butrinti Sarandë 0-1 Maliqi (2nd Division - Group B)
2nd Division - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luftëtari | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 51 |
| 2 | Oriku | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 51 |
| 3 | Tomori Berat | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Devolli | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| 5 | Butrinti Sarandë | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 33 |
| 6 | Delvina | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 26 |
| 7 | Shkumbini Peqin | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -14 | 20 |
| 8 | Maliqi | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -11 | 20 |
| 9 | Këlcyra | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 20 |
| 10 | Turbina Cërrik | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 19 |
| 11 | Memaliaj | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | -64 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Butrinti Sarandë win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.