· Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
BuxDu vs Metalourg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for BuxDu and 2.85 for Metalourg, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Metalourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metalourg win
80.6% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BuxDu home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalourg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 7% / 13% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for BuxDu and 2.85 for Metalourg, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.2%
- 0–310.7%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
BuxDu
- 2026-10-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Yaypan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochin · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Respublika FA · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kattaqurgon · 0-2 (L)
Metalourg
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 58 |
| 2 | Metalourg | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 47 |
| 3 | Shortan | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | Gazalkent | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Kattaqurgon | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | FarDu | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 39 |
| 8 | Lochin | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Respublika FA | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 10 | Jayxun | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -8 | 25 |
| 11 | Yaypan | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 24 | 5 | 1 | 18 | -31 | 16 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor II | 24 | 4 | 1 | 19 | -36 | 13 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 24 | 1 | 1 | 22 | -48 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metalourg win, at 80.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.