· Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
BuxDu vs Pakhtakor II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for BuxDu and 1.28 for Pakhtakor II, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives BuxDu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BuxDu win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BuxDu home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pakhtakor II away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BuxDu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for BuxDu and 1.28 for Pakhtakor II, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
BuxDu
- 2026-10-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Yaypan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochin · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Respublika FA · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kattaqurgon · 0-2 (L)
Pakhtakor II
- 2026-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaypan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kattaqurgon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 58 |
| 2 | Metalourg | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 47 |
| 3 | Shortan | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | Gazalkent | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | FarDu | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Lochin | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 39 |
| 7 | Kattaqurgon | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 36 |
| 9 | Respublika FA | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -2 | 29 |
| 10 | Yaypan | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 25 |
| 11 | Jayxun | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Pakhtakor II | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -33 | 13 |
| 13 | BuxDu | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -34 | 13 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BuxDu win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.