· Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Búzios vs Paduano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Búzios and 2.56 for Paduano, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Paduano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Paduano win
71.5% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 2.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Búzios home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Paduano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paduano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 12% / 16% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Búzios and 2.56 for Paduano, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–38.1%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Búzios
- 2026-08-31T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio de Janeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardoso Moreira · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-23T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Barra Mansa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Barra Mansa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs EC Resende · 1-1 (D)
Paduano
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SE Belford Roxo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 7 de Abril · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Friburguense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Campos AA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraty · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz RJ | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Serra Macaense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Paduano | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | SE Belford Roxo | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Campos AA | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Rio de Janeiro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paduano win, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.