BW Dingden vs Scherpenberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for BW Dingden and 1.09 for Scherpenberg, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives BW Dingden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

BW Dingden win

61.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BW Dingden home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Scherpenberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BW Dingden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for BW Dingden and 1.09 for Scherpenberg, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

BW Dingden win61%

Draw20%

Scherpenberg win19%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.3%
2–09.1%
1–08.5%
3–17.0%

Recent form

BW Dingden

2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC St. Tönis · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSVg Velbert · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Büderich · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wuppertaler SV · 2-0 (W)

Scherpenberg

2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Germania Ratingen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monheim · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Solingen-Wald · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 1-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	10	8	2	0	24	26
2	SSVg Velbert	10	8	0	2	11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	6	2	2	12	20
4	SC St. Tönis	10	5	2	3	5	17
5	Sonsbeck	10	4	4	2	4	16
6	SF Baumberg	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	BW Dingden	10	5	1	4	0	16
8	Monheim	10	4	3	3	6	15
9	Solingen-Wald	10	5	0	5	-4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	10	4	2	4	9	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	3	5	2	1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	4	1	5	5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	2	2	6	-13	8
15	Büderich	10	1	4	5	-14	7
16	SW Essen	10	1	3	6	-11	6
17	Meerbusch	10	1	2	7	-14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	1	1	8	-22	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BW Dingden win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.