· Analysis updated 21:20 UTC
BW Lohne vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for BW Lohne and 1.83 for Schwarz-Weiß Rehden, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Schwarz-Weiß Rehden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BW Lohne home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schwarz-Weiß Rehden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for BW Lohne and 1.83 for Schwarz-Weiß Rehden, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.2%
Recent form
BW Lohne
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilhelmshaven · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemmingen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Verden 04 · 2-2 (D)
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemmingen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Verden 04 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vorsfelde · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-07-20T12:00:00.000Z · BW Lohne 2-4 Schwarz-Weiß Rehden (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-01-16T18:00:00.000Z · BW Lohne 2-2 Schwarz-Weiß Rehden (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-06T17:00:00.000Z · BW Lohne 2-1 Schwarz-Weiß Rehden (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2022-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · BW Lohne 2-1 Schwarz-Weiß Rehden (Regionalliga - Nord)
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Wilhelmshaven | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Heeslinger SC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Spelle-Venhaus | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Borussia Hildesheim | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Bersenbrück | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Meppen II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Verden 04 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Nordhorn | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 13 | Hemmingen | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -20 | 7 |
| 14 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Vorsfelde | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -19 | 5 |
| 16 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.