· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Bzenec vs Třinec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Bzenec and 1.95 for Třinec, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Třinec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bzenec home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Třinec away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Třinec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 37% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Bzenec and 1.95 for Třinec, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.2%
Recent form
Bzenec
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Prostejov B · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kroměříž II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šternberk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strání · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SK Krumvir · 1-3 (L)
Třinec
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Karviná · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vlašim · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.