· Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
Cəbrayıl vs Xankəndi FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Cəbrayıl and 0.81 for Xankəndi FK, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Cəbrayıl the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cəbrayıl win
67.0% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cəbrayıl home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cəbrayıl to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Cəbrayıl and 0.81 for Xankəndi FK, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–08.4%
Recent form
Cəbrayıl
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karvan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Baku Sportinq · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mingəçevir · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Xankəndi FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şimal · 2-1 (W)
Xankəndi FK
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cəbrayıl win, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.