Stade Jacques Couvret · Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
C' Chartres vs Oissel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for C' Chartres and 1.10 for Oissel, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives C' Chartres the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
C' Chartres win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oissel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates C' Chartres to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for C' Chartres and 1.10 for Oissel, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
C' Chartres
Oissel
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quevilly · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs C' Chartres · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sainte Geneviève · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Havre Caucriauville · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St Ouen l'Aumône · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 3 - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Colombes 92 | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 33 | 56 |
| 2 | Aubervilliers | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 45 |
| 3 | Bastia II | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 43 |
| 4 | Linas-Montlhery | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | C' Chartres | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 6 | Versailles II | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 38 |
| 7 | Oissel | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | -9 | 36 |
| 8 | Sainte Geneviève | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 9 | Caen II | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Havre Caucriauville | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Trouville Deauville | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 29 |
| 12 | St Ouen l'Aumône | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -23 | 28 |
| 13 | Dives-Cabourg | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Brétigny Foot | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -15 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is C' Chartres win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.