Stade 15 Octobre · Analysis updated 15:53 UTC
CA Bizertin vs M'saken Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for CA Bizertin and 2.65 for M'saken, a combined total of 4.80. That distribution gives M'saken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
M'saken win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 2.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CA Bizertin home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates M'saken to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 32% / 18% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for CA Bizertin and 2.65 for M'saken, a combined 4.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 82%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.2%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–35.5%
- 2–15.0%
Recent form
CA Bizertin
- 2026-05-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Zarzis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Marsa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Béja · 0-1 (L)
M'saken
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is M'saken win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.