CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for CA La Paz and 1.15 for Tlaxcala, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives CA La Paz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

CA La Paz win

56.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tlaxcala away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CA La Paz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for CA La Paz and 1.15 for Tlaxcala, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

CA La Paz win57%

Draw22%

Tlaxcala win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–19.9%
1–08.7%
2–08.6%
3–16.5%

Recent form

CA La Paz

Tlaxcala

2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Piratas · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cancún · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapatío · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs CDS Tampico Madero · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-08T03:00:00.000Z · CA La Paz 2-0 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
2025-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · CA La Paz 3-3 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
2025-01-11T03:00:00.000Z · CA La Paz 4-4 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
2024-07-27T23:00:00.000Z · CA La Paz 2-0 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
2024-02-17T01:05:00.000Z · CA La Paz 3-2 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
2023-09-27T01:05:00.000Z · CA La Paz 1-0 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
2023-04-04T23:05:00.000Z · CA La Paz 0-1 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
2022-08-10T02:05:00.000Z · CA La Paz 2-2 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)

Liga de Expansión MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	14	8	3	3	15	27
2	Leones Negros UDG	14	8	3	3	12	27
3	Piratas	14	7	3	4	12	24
4	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	6	24
5	Monarcas	13	7	2	4	8	23
6	Cancún	14	6	4	4	8	22
7	Durango	14	6	3	5	4	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	-11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	5	3	6	1	18
10	Tapatío	13	5	2	6	-2	17
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	-2	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	-6	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	-5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	2	1	11	-31	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is CA La Paz win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.