· Analysis updated 20:00 UTC
CA Vila Rica vs Belenense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for CA Vila Rica and 3.50 for Belenense, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives Belenense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belenense win
75.6% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 3.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belenense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belenense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 12% / 13% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for CA Vila Rica and 3.50 for Belenense, a combined 4.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 73%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.4%
- 1–46.4%
- 1–26.3%
- 2–35.3%
- 0–35.1%
Recent form
CA Vila Rica
Belenense
- 2026-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gavião · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Vila Rica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Belem · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Vila Rica · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Belem · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paraense A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavião | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Sport Belem | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Pedreira | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Belenense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Vénus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Pinheirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Tesla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Parauapebas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Paraense SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Altamira | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | ESMAC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
| 12 | CA Vila Rica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belenense win, at 75.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.