· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Cabeza Buey vs Gévora Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Cabeza Buey and 1.13 for Gévora, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Cabeza Buey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cabeza Buey win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cabeza Buey home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gévora away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cabeza Buey to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Cabeza Buey and 1.13 for Gévora, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Cabeza Buey
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Villanovense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Guadiana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Azuaga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jerez · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Montijo · 3-1 (W)
Gévora
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Plasencia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Castuera · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Llerenense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Villanovense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Gévora | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Jerez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Montijo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Santa Amalia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Cabeza Buey | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Villafranca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Jaraíz | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Quintana | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cabeza Buey win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.