· Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Cabofriense U20 vs Maricá U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cabofriense U20 and 1.36 for Maricá U20, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Cabofriense U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cabofriense U20 home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Maricá U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cabofriense U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Cabofriense U20 and 1.36 for Maricá U20, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Cabofriense U20
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nova Iguaçu U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-03-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-03-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Corrêa U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs América RJ U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maricá U20 · 0-3 (L)
Maricá U20
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo U20 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Volta Redonda U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangu U20 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Rio U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | América RJ U20 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Fluminense U20 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | Botafogo U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 15 |
| 5 | Bangu U20 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Flamengo U20 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 |
| 7 | Portuguesa RJ U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sampaio Corrêa U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Madureira U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Boavista U20 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Resende FC U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Nova Iguaçu U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Cabofriense U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Olaria U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 15 | Maricá U20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda U20 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.