· Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Cacahuatique vs Alianza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cacahuatique and 1.65 for Alianza, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Alianza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cacahuatique home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alianza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Cacahuatique and 1.65 for Alianza, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Cacahuatique
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Fuerte San Francisco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Balboa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-0 (D)
Alianza
- 2026-10-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T01:30:00.000Z · A vs FAS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Inter | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 6 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 | Alianza | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -16 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.