Cacahuatique vs Firpo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cacahuatique and 1.95 for Firpo, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Firpo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Firpo win

56.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cacahuatique home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Firpo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Cacahuatique and 1.95 for Firpo, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cacahuatique win22%

Draw22%

Firpo win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.1%
1–29.8%
0–18.8%
0–28.6%
1–36.4%

Recent form

Cacahuatique

2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Fuerte San Francisco · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Balboa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-0 (D)

Firpo

2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Saprissa · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Inca Aruba · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Limeño · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 0-0 Firpo (Primera Division)
2026-04-02T01:00:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 0-1 Firpo (Primera Division)
2026-02-25T21:00:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 0-1 Firpo (Copa Presidente)
2026-02-04T21:30:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 1-3 Firpo (Primera Division)
2025-10-12T01:00:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 0-3 Firpo (Primera Division)
2025-08-10T21:00:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 1-3 Firpo (Primera Division)
2025-05-03T21:30:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 1-1 Firpo (Primera Division)
2025-03-09T01:00:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 1-1 Firpo (Primera Division)
2024-10-05T21:00:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 1-0 Firpo (Primera Division)
2024-08-03T21:30:00.000Z · Cacahuatique 3-1 Firpo (Primera Division)

Primera Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Firpo	15	9	4	2	17	31
2	FAS	17	9	4	4	10	31
3	Isidro Metapán	17	9	3	5	5	30
4	Águila	17	7	6	4	9	27
5	Inter	17	6	8	3	8	26
6	Alianza	16	5	8	3	2	23
7	Platense	16	6	4	6	0	22
8	Municipal Limeño	17	6	3	8	0	21
9	Inca Aruba	17	4	4	9	-18	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	3	5	8	-8	14
11	Cacahuatique	17	2	7	8	-11	13
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	2	6	8	-14	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Firpo win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.