Estadio Principe Felipe · Referee J. A. Palomares Gutierrez · Analysis updated 12:55 UTC
Cacereño vs Arenas Getxo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Cacereño and 0.65 for Arenas Getxo, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Cacereño the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cacereño win
70.7% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cacereño home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arenas Getxo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cacereño to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Cacereño and 0.65 for Arenas Getxo, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.1%
- 1–013.6%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
Cacereño
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Mérida AD · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Ourense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 1-0 (W)
Arenas Getxo
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mérida AD · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cultural Leonesa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Barakaldo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Mérida AD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Athletic Club II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Zamora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Cacereño | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Avilés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontevedra | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Mirandes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Extremadura 1924 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cacereño win, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.