· Analysis updated 10:37 UTC
Cádiz II vs Sevilla III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cádiz II and 0.73 for Sevilla III, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Cádiz II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cádiz II win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cádiz II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sevilla III away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cádiz II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Cádiz II and 0.73 for Sevilla III, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–010.5%
Recent form
Cádiz II
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pozoblanco · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Conil · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomares · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomares · 1-2 (L)
Sevilla III
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomares · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiclana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Egabrense · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Tomares | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Portuense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Utrera | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Betis C | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | San Roque Lepe | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Xerez Deportivo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Pozoblanco | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ceuta II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Conil | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Chiclana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Egabrense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Sevilla III | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Bollullos | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cádiz II win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.