Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.00 for AD Ceuta FC, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Cadiz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cadiz win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cadiz home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AD Ceuta FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cadiz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Cadiz and 1.00 for AD Ceuta FC, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cadiz win54%

Draw24%

AD Ceuta FC win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.4%
1–111.4%
2–09.7%
2–19.7%
0–06.7%

Recent form

Cadiz

2026-10-18T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Granada CF · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Girona · 1-2 (L)

AD Ceuta FC

2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z · Cadiz 1-3 AD Ceuta FC (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · Cadiz 1-2 AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División)
2025-09-28T14:15:00.000Z · Cadiz 0-0 AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División)
2025-08-02T17:00:00.000Z · Cadiz 0-3 AD Ceuta FC (Friendlies Clubs)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Castellón	11	8	2	1	18	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	13	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	7	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	4	20
6	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	-2	19
8	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Burgos	10	5	2	3	3	17
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	2	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	-3	15
12	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	-2	14
13	Eldense	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	-5	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	3	3	5	-5	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	-9	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	0	10
19	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	-4	10
20	Real Sociedad II	11	2	2	7	-8	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	-15	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	-14	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cadiz win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.