Caen vs Valenciennes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Caen and 1.06 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Caen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Caen win

63.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Caen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valenciennes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Caen win63%

Draw20%

Valenciennes win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.9%
2–09.3%
1–19.0%
1–08.5%
3–17.2%

Recent form

Caen

2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rouen · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Gobelins · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 2-0 (W)

Valenciennes

2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Puy Foot · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Fleury 91 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · Caen 4-0 Valenciennes (Ligue 3)
2026-02-28T14:00:00.000Z · Caen 1-2 Valenciennes (Ligue 3)
2025-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · Caen 0-0 Valenciennes (Ligue 3)
2024-05-17T18:45:00.000Z · Caen 3-0 Valenciennes (Ligue 2)
2023-10-28T17:00:00.000Z · Caen 2-2 Valenciennes (Ligue 2)
2023-03-18T18:00:00.000Z · Caen 2-1 Valenciennes (Ligue 2)
2022-11-05T18:00:00.000Z · Caen 1-1 Valenciennes (Ligue 2)
2022-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · Caen 1-1 Valenciennes (Ligue 2)
2021-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · Caen 1-2 Valenciennes (Ligue 2)
2021-02-02T19:00:00.000Z · Caen 1-1 Valenciennes (Ligue 2)

Ligue 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	La Roche VF	9	6	3	0	7	21
2	Rouen	9	6	2	1	12	20
3	Concarneau	9	4	4	1	4	16
4	Versailles	9	5	1	3	1	16
5	Amiens	9	4	3	2	9	15
6	Cannes	9	3	6	0	7	15
7	Caen	9	5	0	4	5	15
8	Le Puy Foot	9	4	1	4	2	13
9	Thionville Lusitanos	9	3	3	3	0	12
10	Fleury 91	9	3	3	3	3	12
11	Gobelins	9	3	3	3	-2	12
12	Bastia	9	3	2	4	-4	11
13	Quevilly	9	2	4	3	-4	10
14	Orleans	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Valenciennes	9	2	2	5	-5	8
16	Aubagne	9	2	1	6	-6	7
17	Bourg-en-bresse 01	9	1	2	6	-10	5
18	Villefranche	9	1	1	7	-15	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Caen win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.