· Analysis updated 14:47 UTC
Caen vs Versailles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Caen and 1.40 for Versailles, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Caen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Versailles away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Caen and 1.40 for Versailles, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Caen
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rouen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Gobelins · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 2-0 (W)
Versailles
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Valenciennes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Villefranche · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Quevilly · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Orleans · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Cannes · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.