· Analysis updated 13:03 UTC
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Caerau (Ely) and 1.38 for Llantwit Major, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Caerau (Ely) the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Caerau (Ely) win
66.7% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caerau (Ely) home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llantwit Major away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caerau (Ely) to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Caerau (Ely) and 1.38 for Llantwit Major, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.1%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–25.7%
Recent form
Caerau (Ely)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Aberystwyth Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Afan Lido · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff Draconians · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs llanelli AFC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Treowen Stars · 3-2 (W)
Llantwit Major
- 2026-10-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontypridd Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carmarthen Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs llanelli AFC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Treowen Stars · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Aberystwyth Town · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caerau (Ely) win, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.