Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Caerphilly Athletic and 1.60 for Baglan Dragons, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Baglan Dragons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Caerphilly Athletic home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baglan Dragons to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Caerphilly Athletic and 1.60 for Baglan Dragons, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Caerphilly Athletic win32%

Draw24%

Baglan Dragons win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–29.0%
0–18.4%
2–17.6%
1–07.1%

Recent form

Caerphilly Athletic

2026-10-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carmarthen Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chepstow Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newport City · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Swansea University · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Pontypridd Town · 1-2 (L)

Baglan Dragons

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FAW Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea University	9	6	3	0	19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	6	3	2	7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	6	1	2	13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	6	1	4	2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	4	4	3	4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	4	3	4	-1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	4	3	5	-1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	4	2	5	-5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	-2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	3	2	5	-11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Newport City	9	2	3	4	3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	2	3	4	-5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	0	2	10	-27	2
1	Brickfield Rangers	12	10	0	2	17	30
2	Newtown AFC	11	7	3	1	15	24
3	Porthmadog	12	7	2	3	6	23
4	Mold Alexandra	11	6	3	2	14	21
5	Bala Town	12	6	2	4	2	20
6	Caersws	11	5	4	2	7	19
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	11	5	3	3	6	18
8	Guilsfield	12	4	5	3	2	17
9	Buckley Town	12	4	3	5	4	15
10	Llanuwchllyn	12	4	3	5	-7	15
11	Rhyl	12	2	6	4	-2	12
12	Holyhead Hotspur	11	3	2	6	-5	11
13	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	-3	10
14	Ruthin Town	11	2	3	6	-11	9
15	Gresford Athletic	10	2	1	7	-16	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	-29	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.