· Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Caerphilly Athletic vs Pontypridd Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Caerphilly Athletic and 2.35 for Pontypridd Town, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Pontypridd Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pontypridd Town win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caerphilly Athletic home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pontypridd Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pontypridd Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 28% / 20% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Caerphilly Athletic and 2.35 for Pontypridd Town, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–15.9%
Recent form
Caerphilly Athletic
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newport City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Swansea University · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Pontypridd Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Aberystwyth Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Trethomas Bluebirds · 2-2 (D)
Pontypridd Town
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Aberystwyth Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Caerphilly Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Afan Lido · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Swansea University · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trethomas Bluebirds · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pontypridd Town win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.