Unipol Domus · Analysis updated 21:48 UTC
Cagliari vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.68 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AS Roma win
61.5% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cagliari home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Roma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 0–213.4%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Cagliari
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)
AS Roma
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-09T19:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2025-12-07T14:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2025-03-16T15:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2024-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2024-02-05T19:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-4 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2023-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-4 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2022-01-16T17:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2021-10-27T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2021-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 3-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2020-12-23T19:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 2-3 AS Roma (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Roma win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.