Unipol Domus · Referee Michael Fabbri, Italy · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Cagliari vs Inter Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.99 for Inter, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cagliari home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.1%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–38.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.1% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.75 | 33.9% | 35.0% | 2.86 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.0% | 1.89 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 6.60 | 14.2% | 14.4% | 6.94 | +0.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 52.0% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.44 | 65.0% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 48.0% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.8% | 20.6% | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 79.7% | 79.4% | 1.26 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 47.0% | 2.13 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.08 | 86.4% | 85.6% | 1.17 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.95 | 31.9% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -1.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cagliari
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)
Inter
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-17T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-3 Inter (Serie A)
- 2025-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-2 Inter (Serie A)
- 2025-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-3 Inter (Serie A)
- 2024-12-28T17:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-3 Inter (Serie A)
- 2024-04-14T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 2-2 Inter (Serie A)
- 2023-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-2 Inter (Serie A)
- 2022-05-15T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-3 Inter (Serie A)
- 2021-12-12T19:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-4 Inter (Serie A)
- 2021-04-11T10:30:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-1 Inter (Serie A)
- 2020-12-13T11:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-3 Inter (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.