Unipol Domus · Referee Matteo Marcenaro · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Cagliari vs Juventus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.71 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.64 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Juventus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Juventus win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
0.71 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cagliari home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juventus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 16% / 24% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.71 goals for Cagliari and 1.64 for Juventus, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 59.0% vs market 53.3%, edge +5.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 53.3% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +5.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.40 | 39.5% | 40.2% | 2.49 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 6.00 | 15.5% | 15.9% | 6.29 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.5% | 24.3% | 4.12 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.8% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.55 | 60.0% | 59.7% | 1.68 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 84.7% | 84.0% | 1.19 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.7% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -5.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cagliari
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)
Juventus
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-17T19:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-0 Juventus (Serie A)
- 2025-11-29T17:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-2 Juventus (Serie A)
- 2025-02-23T19:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-1 Juventus (Serie A)
- 2024-12-17T20:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-4 Juventus (Coppa Italia)
- 2024-10-06T10:30:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-1 Juventus (Serie A)
- 2024-04-19T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 2-2 Juventus (Serie A)
- 2023-11-11T17:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-2 Juventus (Serie A)
- 2022-04-09T18:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-2 Juventus (Serie A)
- 2021-12-21T19:45:00.000Z · Cagliari 0-2 Juventus (Serie A)
- 2021-03-14T17:00:00.000Z · Cagliari 1-3 Juventus (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juventus win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.