Unipol Domus · Referee Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy · Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.94 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Cagliari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cagliari win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cagliari home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lecce away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cagliari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Cagliari and 0.94 for Lecce, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 52.0% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 23.3% | 25.1% | 3.98 | +1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.2% | 73.0% | 1.37 | +1.8 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 77.5% | 78.9% | 1.27 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 46.6% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +1.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 52.9% | 52.1% | 1.92 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 75.9% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 42.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.20 | 22.5% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 48.0% | 46.1% | 2.17 | -1.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 30.1% | 27.0% | 3.70 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cagliari
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)
Lecce
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cagliari win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.