Cagliari vs Napoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.00 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Cagliari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cagliari home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cagliari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Cagliari and 1.00 for Napoli, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Cagliari win35%

Draw31%

Napoli win35%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

0–013.5%
1–013.5%
0–113.5%
1–113.5%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Cagliari

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)

Napoli

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.