Cagliari vs Parma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.55 for Parma, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Cagliari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Cagliari win

52.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cagliari home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cagliari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 30% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Cagliari and 0.55 for Parma, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 30%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.

Match result (1X2)

Cagliari win53%

Draw30%

Parma win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

1–020.8%
0–016.9%
2–012.7%
1–111.4%
0–19.3%

Recent form

Cagliari

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)

Parma

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cagliari win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.