Unipol Domus · Analysis updated 06:25 UTC
Cagliari vs Sassuolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.26 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Cagliari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.
Model pick
Cagliari or Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cagliari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Cagliari and 1.26 for Sassuolo, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Cagliari or Draw is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Cagliari
Sassuolo
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.