· Analysis updated 21:00 UTC
Cailungo vs Tre Fiori Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Cailungo and 1.77 for Tre Fiori, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Tre Fiori the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tre Fiori win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cailungo home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tre Fiori away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tre Fiori to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 22% / 23% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Cailungo and 1.77 for Tre Fiori, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Cailungo
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Libertas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Giovanni · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tre Penne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Pennarossa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Folgore · 0-1 (L)
Tre Fiori
- 2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Virtus · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Domagnano · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Faetano · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pennarossa · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Fiorentino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Cailungo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 11 | San Giovanni | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 12 | Murata | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Pennarossa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 14 | Juvenes / Dogana | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tre Fiori win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.