· Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Caiquetio vs Estrella Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Caiquetio and 1.22 for Estrella, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Caiquetio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caiquetio home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caiquetio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Caiquetio and 1.22 for Estrella, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Caiquetio
- 2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Unistars · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil Juniors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrella · 2-1 (W)
Estrella
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division di Honor table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.