Stadio Cesare Brin · Analysis updated 16:47 UTC
Cairese vs Derthona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Cairese and 0.98 for Derthona, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Derthona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cairese home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Derthona away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derthona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 34% / 32% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Cairese and 0.98 for Derthona, a combined 1.92 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–014.6%
- 0–114.2%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Cairese
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gozzano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Valenzana · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Milano · 0-1 (L)
Derthona
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Alessandria · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saluzzo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Millesimo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ligorna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Imperia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Biellese | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Millesimo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Chisola | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Ligorna | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Sanremese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Lascaris | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Asti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Imperia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Saluzzo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Gozzano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Bra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Borgosesia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Fezzanese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.