Unidad Deportiva Revolucion Mexicana · Analysis updated 09:26 UTC
Caja Oblatos CFD vs Deportivo Ayense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Caja Oblatos CFD and 1.55 for Deportivo Ayense, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Deportivo Ayense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Ayense win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caja Oblatos CFD home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Ayense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Ayense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 26% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Caja Oblatos CFD and 1.55 for Deportivo Ayense, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Caja Oblatos CFD
- 2026-03-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Artesanos Metepec · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aguacateros CDU · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-02-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Racing · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-02-14T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Gorilas de Juanacatlan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-02-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracanes Izcalli · 1-0 (W)
Deportivo Ayense
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing de Veracruz 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Lagunas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilas de Juanacatlan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracanes Izcalli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Racing · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 |
| 2 | Irapuato II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Celaya 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Gorilas de Juanacatlan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 5 | Huracanes Izcalli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul Lagunas | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Ayense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Heroes de Zaci 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 | Internacional Laguna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -11 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Hidalgo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Ayense win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.