· Analysis updated 12:10 UTC
Cala Pozuelo vs RC Alcobendas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Cala Pozuelo and 1.50 for RC Alcobendas, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Cala Pozuelo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cala Pozuelo win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cala Pozuelo home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cala Pozuelo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Cala Pozuelo and 1.50 for RC Alcobendas, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Cala Pozuelo
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Galapagar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Móstoles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 1-3 (L)
RC Alcobendas
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Cala Pozuelo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Las Rozas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Aranjuez · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Móstoles | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Colonia Moscardó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Cala Pozuelo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Unión Adarve | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Trival Valderas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Galapagar | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Torrejón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Leganés II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Alcobendas Sport | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Real Aranjuez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Parla Escuela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cala Pozuelo win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.