Calahorra vs Yagüe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Calahorra and 0.92 for Yagüe, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Calahorra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Calahorra win

78.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.93 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Calahorra home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yagüe away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Calahorra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Calahorra and 0.92 for Yagüe, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Calahorra win78%

Draw13%

Yagüe win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.2%
3–08.9%
2–18.4%
3–18.2%
4–06.6%

Recent form

Calahorra

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Haro Deportivo · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfaro · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Calasancio · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Agoncillo · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Oyonesa · 2-0 (W)

Yagüe

2026-05-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Calahorra · 4-4 (D)
2026-04-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Comillas · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés II · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vianés · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Calahorra win, at 78.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.