Municipal de Tarazona · Analysis updated 09:13 UTC
Calamocha vs Terrassa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.49 expected goals for Calamocha and 1.35 for Terrassa, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Terrassa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Terrassa win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
0.49 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Terrassa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Terrassa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 13% / 28% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.49 goals for Calamocha and 1.35 for Terrassa, a combined 1.84 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 28% and both teams to score at 29%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.5%
- 0–015.9%
- 0–214.5%
- 1–110.5%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Calamocha
Terrassa
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SD Logroñés · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Girona II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sestao River · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Espanyol II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Olot | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Terrassa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Manresa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Osasuna II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Girona II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Ebro | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Reddis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Tudelano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Peña Sport | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | UD Logroñés II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Barbastro | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Utebo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Náxara | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Terrassa win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.