Calamonte vs Badajoz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Calamonte and 1.33 for Badajoz, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Badajoz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Calamonte home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Badajoz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Badajoz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Calamonte and 1.33 for Badajoz, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Calamonte win31%

Draw27%

Badajoz win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.9%
0–111.6%
1–09.6%
0–08.7%
1–28.6%

Recent form

Calamonte

2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llerenense · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montijo · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Moralo · 1-1 (D)

Badajoz

2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife II · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Moralo	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Llerenense	5	4	1	0	4	13
4	Castuera	5	4	0	1	10	12
5	Villanovense	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Puebla Calzada	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	CD Zafra	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Gévora	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Jerez	5	2	1	2	1	7
10	Montijo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	1	3	2	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Quintana	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Plasencia	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Guadiana	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.