Calamonte vs Don Benito Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Calamonte and 1.73 for Don Benito, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Don Benito the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Don Benito win

61.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.73 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Calamonte home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Don Benito away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Calamonte win15%

Draw23%

Don Benito win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–114.9%
0–212.8%
1–110.8%
1–29.3%
0–08.6%

Recent form

Calamonte

2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llerenense · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montijo · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Moralo · 1-1 (D)

Don Benito

2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estepona · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanluqueño · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Antoniano · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-22T16:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 1-1 Don Benito (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2025-11-09T11:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 0-2 Don Benito (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2024-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 1-3 Don Benito (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2023-11-26T11:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 1-0 Don Benito (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2022-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · Calamonte 1-0 Don Benito (Friendlies Clubs)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Llerenense	7	6	1	0	8	19
2	Azuaga	7	6	0	1	11	18
3	Moralo	7	5	2	0	7	17
4	Castuera	7	4	1	2	9	13
5	Villanovense	7	4	1	2	5	13
6	Jerez	7	3	2	2	2	11
7	Villafranca	7	3	1	3	0	10
8	CD Zafra	7	2	3	2	1	9
9	Cabeza Buey	7	2	3	2	1	9
10	Puebla Calzada	7	2	2	3	1	8
11	Montijo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Gévora	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	1	4	2	-2	7
14	Quintana	7	1	3	3	-4	6
15	Plasencia	7	1	3	3	-5	6
16	Jaraíz	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	0	3	4	-11	3
18	Guadiana	7	0	1	6	-14	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Don Benito win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.